Brian McKay
Brian McKay
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Fall 2026 Housing Affordability Report: 30-Year Mortgage Rates Top 7%, Every State Less Affordable
On August 25 the MonitorBankRates Housing Affordability Index stood at 99.4 and the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.68%. Since then, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.64% to about 5%, the average 30-year rate rose above 7%, and every state is less affordable than it was at the end of summer.
The MonitorBankRates Housing Affordability Index stood at 97.4 on October 29, down from 99.4 on August 25. That is a drop of 2.0 index points in nine weeks, and one factor drove it: the average 30-year mortgage rate rose from 6.678% to 7.261%. Average mortgage rates are computed daily from 14,480 verified rate quotes at 2,246 banks and credit unions, published on each institution's own website.
Key takeaways
- The national MBR-HAI fell from 99.4 on August 25 to 97.4 on October 29. Its lowest reading of the period was 97.0 on October 10.
- The average 30-year mortgage rate rose from 6.678% to 7.261%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points. It reached 7.394% on October 10 and has eased 0.13 points since. The score fell about 0.84 points for each quarter point the rate rose, inside the 0.8 to 1.0 range the methodology projects.
- All 51 states are less affordable than in late August. The largest declines were Iowa (-2.7), Alaska (-2.7), West Virginia (-2.6), Alabama (-2.5) and Nebraska (-2.5). Hawaii (-0.9) and California (-1.1) fell the least.
- Six states moved down a rating: Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Maryland and Hawaii.
- Texas and Alaska dropped below the 100 baseline. 26 states now score at or above 100, down from 28 in August.
The average 30-year rate passed 7% after the Fed's September increase
The red line below is the national average 30-year mortgage rate. The blue line is the national index score. As the average rose, the score fell, and it stayed under 100 for the entire period.
30-year mortgage rate vs. national affordability score, Aug. 25 to Oct. 29, 2026
Daily values from the MonitorBankRates rate database. Days with no published reading, mostly in September, are left out of the line.
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Through the first two weeks of September the average moved from 6.67% to 6.75%. The first reading after the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision, on September 18, was 6.905%. The average reached 6.983% on September 24 and was above 7% by September 30 at 7.183%. It rose to 7.349% on October 3 and to 7.394% on October 10, the high for the period, when the national score was 96.97. Since then it has declined in small steps to 7.261%, and the score has recovered to 97.39.
On September 16 the Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% in a 12 to 0 vote, its first increase since July 2023. On October 28 it held that range in a 10 to 2 vote; Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferred another quarter point increase. The October FOMC statement said inflation remains elevated and that the committee will gather more information before deciding its next step. The average 30-year rate held steady the morning after the October decision, at 7.261%.
Lenders price 30-year mortgages mainly off the 10-year Treasury yield, not the Fed's target range. The 10-year yield was 4.64% on August 25, rose to 5.31% on October 5, and was 4.99% on October 27, according to Federal Reserve data.
What 7.26% means for a monthly payment
On a $350,000 loan, principal and interest at 6.678% is about $2,253 a month. At 7.261% it is about $2,390. That is $137 more each month, or about $1,640 a year, for the same house. At the 28% payment-to-income guideline lenders commonly use, the income needed to qualify for that loan rose from about $96,600 to about $102,400, before property taxes and homeowners insurance are added to the payment.
Measured from early May, when the average was 6.302%, the same loan's payment is up $223 a month and the qualifying income is up about $9,600, from roughly $92,900. The mortgage affordability calculator runs this calculation with your own income, down payment and rate.
Iowa and Alaska lost the most ground
Every state's score fell. The bars below show the eight largest declines and the four smallest.
Change in MBR-HAI score, Aug. 25 to Oct. 29, 2026: largest and smallest declines
Red bars are declines of 2.0 points or more. Gray bars are the four states that fell the least.
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Two things set the size of each state's decline. The first is how far its own average 30-year rate rose. Across all states the average rose 0.59 points, but Alaska's rose 0.78 points, from 6.47% to 7.25%, the largest increase of any state. That took Alaska from 101.1 to 98.4. The second is where a state started. In states where incomes are high relative to home values, such as Iowa and West Virginia, a given rate increase removes more index points than it does in California or Hawaii, where the score starts below 70.
Tennessee shows the first effect in the other direction. Its average 30-year rate rose 0.38 points, the smallest increase of any state, and its score fell 1.2 points, the least of any state scoring above 100. Missouri, with the second smallest rate increase at 0.39 points, fell 1.5. Maine had the lowest state average in August at 6.46%; it rose 0.74 points to 7.19%, and Maine's score fell 2.4 points to 95.4. Indiana now has the highest state average at 7.42%, and Hawaii the lowest at 7.09%.
Five largest declines
| State | August | October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 128.9 | 126.2 | -2.7 |
| Alaska | 101.1 | 98.4 | -2.7 |
| West Virginia | 147.8 | 145.2 | -2.6 |
| Nebraska | 109.0 | 106.5 | -2.5 |
| Alabama | 136.5 | 134.0 | -2.4 |
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Six states moved down a rating
Kansas went from 122.2 to 119.95, just under the 120 cutoff, and is now rated More Affordable Than Average instead of Highly Affordable. Michigan (110.7 to 108.5) and Pennsylvania (110.5 to 108.3) are now Near National Average. Vermont (91.9 to 89.8) and Maryland (91.3 to 89.4) are now Moderately Less Affordable. Hawaii went from 70.3 to 69.3 and is now Significantly Less Affordable, the same rating as California.
Two more states fell below 100
Texas went from 101.5 to 99.2 and Alaska from 101.1 to 98.4, leaving 26 states at or above the 100 baseline. The closest state still above it is Illinois at 102.1.
The top and bottom of the list did not change. West Virginia is first at 145.2, followed by Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Iowa. California is last at 67.5, with Hawaii, Massachusetts, the District of Columbia and Oregon above it. In the middle, Tennessee moved from 25th to 23rd, ahead of Delaware and Wyoming, and Ohio moved back ahead of New Mexico into 14th. The gap between first and last narrowed from 79.2 points to 77.7.
MBR-HAI score by state, October 29, 2026
Scores as of October 29, 2026. National baseline = 100; higher is more affordable. Hover a state for its August to October change; click for its live daily score.
Source: MonitorBankRates (MBR) Housing Affordability Index, MonitorBankRates.com. A live version of this map is available to embed below.
All 51 states: August vs. October 2026
| # | State | August | October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Virginia | 147.8 | 145.2 | -2.6 |
| 2 | Arkansas | 137.5 | 135.7 | -1.8 |
| 3 | Alabama | 136.5 | 134.0 | -2.4 |
| 4 | Mississippi | 133.3 | 131.1 | -2.2 |
| 5 | Iowa | 128.9 | 126.2 | -2.7 |
| 6 | Louisiana | 127.2 | 125.1 | -2.1 |
| 7 | Indiana | 126.0 | 123.6 | -2.4 |
| 8 | Kentucky | 122.9 | 120.8 | -2.1 |
| 9 | Kansas | 122.2 | 120.0 | -2.2 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 119.0 | 117.3 | -1.7 |
| 11 | Missouri | 117.2 | 115.7 | -1.5 |
| 12 | North Dakota | 116.4 | 114.2 | -2.2 |
| 13 | South Carolina | 114.7 | 112.3 | -2.4 |
| 14 | Ohio | 114.1 | 112.1 | -2.0 |
| 15 | New Mexico | 114.3 | 112.0 | -2.3 |
| 16 | South Dakota | 113.5 | 111.3 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Michigan | 110.7 | 108.5 | -2.2 |
| 18 | Pennsylvania | 110.5 | 108.3 | -2.2 |
| 19 | Nebraska | 109.0 | 106.5 | -2.5 |
| 20 | Georgia | 108.2 | 105.8 | -2.4 |
| 21 | North Carolina | 106.7 | 104.6 | -2.1 |
| 22 | Wisconsin | 106.5 | 104.3 | -2.1 |
| 23 | Tennessee | 104.9 | 103.7 | -1.2 |
| 24 | Delaware | 105.6 | 103.6 | -2.0 |
| 25 | Wyoming | 104.9 | 103.1 | -1.8 |
| 26 | Illinois | 104.3 | 102.1 | -2.1 |
| 27 | Texas | 101.5 | 99.2 | -2.3 |
| 28 | Alaska | 101.1 | 98.4 | -2.7 |
| 29 | Minnesota | 99.4 | 97.4 | -1.9 |
| 30 | Idaho | 98.1 | 96.7 | -1.4 |
| 31 | Maine | 97.8 | 95.4 | -2.4 |
| 32 | Virginia | 97.0 | 94.8 | -2.2 |
| 33 | Arizona | 95.3 | 93.6 | -1.7 |
| 34 | Montana | 94.2 | 92.7 | -1.4 |
| 35 | Florida | 94.1 | 92.5 | -1.6 |
| 36 | Utah | 92.2 | 90.7 | -1.5 |
| 37 | Vermont | 91.9 | 89.8 | -2.0 |
| 38 | Maryland | 91.3 | 89.4 | -1.9 |
| 39 | Connecticut | 89.4 | 87.5 | -1.9 |
| 40 | New Hampshire | 88.2 | 86.3 | -1.9 |
| 41 | Nevada | 87.5 | 86.2 | -1.4 |
| 42 | New Jersey | 85.2 | 83.4 | -1.8 |
| 43 | Colorado | 84.7 | 83.3 | -1.4 |
| 44 | Washington | 83.6 | 82.2 | -1.4 |
| 45 | Rhode Island | 82.4 | 81.2 | -1.2 |
| 46 | New York | 81.4 | 80.1 | -1.3 |
| 47 | Oregon | 79.4 | 78.0 | -1.5 |
| 48 | District of Columbia | 79.0 | 77.6 | -1.4 |
| 49 | Massachusetts | 77.2 | 76.0 | -1.3 |
| 50 | Hawaii | 70.3 | 69.3 | -0.9 |
| 51 | California | 68.6 | 67.5 | -1.1 |
Scores as of August 25 and October 29, 2026. Rank and rating reflect the October score. Kansas scored 119.95, just below the 120 cutoff for Highly Affordable. Click a state for its daily history and city breakdown.
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What could move the index before winter
The December 9 Fed decision. The Fed's next rate decision is December 9, and two members already voted for an increase in October. Each quarter point move in the average 30-year rate shifts the national score by roughly 0.8 to 0.9 points. Illinois, at 102.1, is the closest state to falling below 100.
New Census estimates. The eight Census components update in December with the new American Community Survey release. Home values and incomes will both change, and that update can move state rankings more than a rate change of the size seen this fall.
Current quotes from individual lenders are on the 30-year mortgage rates page, other loan types are on the mortgage rates page, and daily national and state averages are on the mortgage rate trends page, all built from the same data as this report. The Summer 2026 report covers May through August.
About the MBR Housing Affordability Index
The MBR-HAI combines nine components. One is a qualifying income calculation using the live average 30-year mortgage rate from the MonitorBankRates lender database. The other eight come from the Census Bureau: median home value, median household income, the price to income ratio, conforming loan limit access, median monthly owner costs, property tax burden, homeownership and vacancy rates, and owner and renter cost burden shares. A score of 100 equals the national baseline at a 6.5% reference rate. The rate component updates every morning; the Census components update each December. The full formula is on the methodology page.
The index is free for editorial, academic and policy use. Cite it as “MonitorBankRates (MBR) Housing Affordability Index, MonitorBankRates.com” and link to the methodology page. Daily national and state history is available as CSV downloads from the live index page. The figures in this report are as of October 29, 2026 and will not change; the live page updates every morning.
This report is for general information and is not financial advice. Index scores describe typical conditions in a market, not any individual's ability to qualify for a mortgage.
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