Thirty Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Should be as Low as 2.60 Percent Says Fed

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published a very interesting article on why 30 year fixed mortgage rates are hovering around 3.30 percent and are not as low as 2.60 percent, where they should be based on one measure. Since the Financial crisis of 2007 mortgage rates have made a series of record lows because of several factors including the Federal Reserve buying mortgage backed securities (MBS) to drive rates lower.

MBS are bundles of mortgage loans sold to investors, bundling mortgage loans and selling them to investors frees up capital so mortgage companies can make more loans.
Loan Type
Purchase    Refinance
Location
State/City    Zip Code
Loan Amt Points FICO % Down
  
$
30 yr fixed refi in 23223, All points, Credit score: 740+     Sort by:
Lender
APR
Rate
Cost & Fees
Notes
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Lending.com
Lending.com
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/9139_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.190
4.125
USD
Lending.com Logo
NMLS # 1071
State Lic # MC-1772
(877) 387 - 4811
at 0.100 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,453.95
Fees in APR: $2,036
Thank you for your inquiry, we will be in touch shortly. 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from E-Click Lending
E-Click Lending
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/4213_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.981
4.750
USD
E-Click Lending Logo
NMLS # 227765
State Lic # MC-5920
(877) 387 - 3899
at 1.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,564.94
Fees in APR: $4,835
 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Sebonic Financial
Sebonic Financial
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/8420_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.092
3.990
USD
Sebonic Financial Logo
NMLS # 66247
State Lic # MC-1825
(877) 388 - 9671
at 0.100 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,430.52
Fees in APR: $3,374
Thank you for your inquiry, we will be in touch shortly. 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Lending.com
Lending.com
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/9139_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.262
4.250
USD
Lending.com Logo
NMLS # 1071
State Lic # MC-1772
(877) 387 - 4811
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $443
Thank you for your inquiry, we will be in touch shortly. 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from E-Click Lending
E-Click Lending
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/4213_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
5.054
5.000
USD
E-Click Lending Logo
NMLS # 227765
State Lic # MC-5920
(877) 387 - 3899
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,610.46
Fees in APR: $1,825
 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from JG Wentworth Home Lending
JG Wentworth Home Lending
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/10054_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.375
4.375
USD
JG Wentworth Home Lending Logo
NMLS # 2925
State Lic # MC-1875
at 0.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,497.86
Fees in APR: None
 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Sebonic Financial
Sebonic Financial
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/8420_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.253
4.240
USD
Sebonic Financial Logo
NMLS # 66247
State Lic # MC-1825
(877) 388 - 9671
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,474.06
Fees in APR: $479
Thank you for your inquiry, we will be in touch shortly. 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Citibank, N. A.
Citibank, N. A.
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/8189_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.672
4.625
USD
Citibank, N. A. Logo
NMLS # 412915
(877) 387 - 1820
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,542.42
Fees in APR: $1,635
 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from E-Click Lending
E-Click Lending
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/4213_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.795
4.375
USD
E-Click Lending Logo
NMLS # 227765
State Lic # MC-5920
(877) 387 - 3899
at 2.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,497.86
Fees in APR: $8,349
 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Lending.com
Lending.com
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/9139_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.030
3.875
USD
Lending.com Logo
NMLS # 1071
State Lic # MC-1772
(877) 387 - 4811
at 1.100 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,410.71
Fees in APR: $2,288
Thank you for your inquiry, we will be in touch shortly. 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Sebonic Financial
Sebonic Financial
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/8420_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.021
3.865
USD
Sebonic Financial Logo
NMLS # 66247
State Lic # MC-1825
(877) 388 - 9671
at 1.100 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,409.00
Fees in APR: $2,327
Thank you for your inquiry, we will be in touch shortly. 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Bank of Oak Ridge
Bank of Oak Ridge
300000
Refinance
4.304
4.250
USD
Bank of Oak Ridge
4.304%
2/14/2019
4.250%
at 0.353 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $853
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Citizens Bank, NA
Citizens Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.665
4.625
USD
Citizens Bank, NA
4.665%
2/15/2019
4.625%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,542.42
Fees in APR: $1,408
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Bank of America
Bank of America
300000
Refinance
4.326
4.250
USD
Bank of America
4.326%
2/13/2019
4.250%
at 0.472 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $1,289
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Santander Bank, N.A.
Santander Bank, N.A.
300000
Refinance
4.683
4.625
USD
Santander Bank, N.A.
4.683%
2/19/2019
4.625%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,542.42
Fees in APR: $2,004
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Apple Federal Credit Union
Apple Federal Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.596
4.500
USD
Apple Federal Credit Union
4.596%
2/13/2019
4.500%
at 1.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $352
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from LincolnWay Community Bank
LincolnWay Community Bank
300000
Refinance
4.406
4.375
USD
LincolnWay Community Bank
4.406%
2/19/2019
4.375%
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,497.86
Fees in APR: $1,085
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Virginia Credit Union
Virginia Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.465
4.375
USD
Virginia Credit Union
4.465%
2/19/2019
4.375%
at 0.500 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,497.86
Fees in APR: $1,650
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Raymond James Bank, NA
Raymond James Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.662
4.625
USD
Raymond James Bank, NA
4.662%
2/19/2019
4.625%
at 0.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,542.42
Fees in APR: $1,299
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from State Department Federal Credit Union
State Department Federal Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.557
4.500
USD
State Department Federal Credit Union
4.557%
2/18/2019
4.500%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $2,000
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Northwest Federal Credit Union
Northwest Federal Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.545
4.500
USD
Northwest Federal Credit Union
4.545%
2/13/2019
4.500%
at 0.500 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $79
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Fulton Bank, NA
Fulton Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.686
4.625
USD
Fulton Bank, NA
4.686%
2/19/2019
4.625%
at 0.375 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,542.42
Fees in APR: $1,007
 
 

Mortage Data Provided by Bankrate.com Many lenders have different rates on their own Websites than those posted on Bankrate.com. In order to get the Bankrate.com rate, please identify yourself as a Bankrate.com customer. If you believe that you have received an inaccurate quote or are otherwise not satisfied with the services provided to you by the lender you choose, please click here.

The rates above were collected by Bankrate.com on the dates specified. Rates are subject to change without notice and may vary from branch to branch. Rate/APR and terms may vary based on the creditworthiness of the individual and the extent to which the loan differs from the one used for Bankrate.com quotes. For criteria used in surveys of rates above, click here. These quotes are from banks, thrifts, and brokers, some of whom have paid for a link to their own Web site, where you can find additional information.






The Fed is buying MBS to provide more liquidity to the market to drive MBS prices lower which in turn will drive mortgage rates lower as well. Both mortgage rates and yields on MBS have moved lower since the Fed's policy was enacted but the declines in the latter have been more pronounced.  

In fact, if the declines in the secondary market (MBS) were passed through to loan rates one-for-one, the average mortgage rate would now be around 2.60 percent. Rates in this week's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) are averaging 3.34 percent, almost 75 basis points higher.

The chart to the right shows the rate spread between the primary mortgage market and secondary mortgage market. The spread difference has increased 70 basis points to 115 basis points today from around 45 basis points in 2007. This begs the question why mortgage rates today are not at 2.60 percent instead of where they are at 3.3o percent.

Before we get into why current mortgage rates haven't fallen as much in the primary market as they have in the secondary market, I'd like to first point out that there are some lenders quoting current mortgage rates only about 25 basis points higher than 2.60 percent. The lowest fixed 30 year mortgage rates we have seen on our rate table the past couple of months is at 2.875 percent. Granted, to get this low rate you have to pay points but nonetheless, the rate is available and only slightly above where rates should be according to the New York Fed.

There are several reasons why the spread between the two markets is increasing, including the fact that yields on MBS can be directly observed and are computed under a number of assumptions that according to Fuster and Lucca, "are particularly sensitive to misspecification in the current environment."

Another main factor is the spread doesn't take into account the guarantee fees on loans charged by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, which have increased from 20 to 25 basis points before 2008 to about 50 basis points today. If you just factor in the fees that are charged by the GSE's, the rate difference between the lowest rates available right now and the secondary market rates, the spread difference makes sense.
 
Author: Brian McKay
January 6th, 2013