Mortgage Rates Forced Lower by QE4 and Global Bond Markets

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A fourth round of Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve? Yes, there is another round of easing already happening that is forcing mortgage rates lower but the Federal Reserve doesn't have anything to do with it. The easing comes in the form of lower oil prices.

You have heard about lower oil prices in the news and have seen sharply lower gas prices at the pump. The price per barrel of oil has fallen from over $100 a barrel last summer to $48 a barrel today. The plunge in oil, other commodity prices, and equity markets has forced investors to flee to the safety of U.S. Treasuries.
Loan Type
Purchase    Refinance
Location
State/City    Zip Code
Loan Amt Points FICO % Down
  
$
30 yr fixed refi in 06101, All points, Credit score: 740+     Sort by:
Lender
APR
Rate
Cost & Fees
Notes
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Garden State Home Loans
Garden State Home Loans
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/7950_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
3.720
3.624
USD
Garden State Home Loans Logo
NMLS # 473163
State Lic # ML-473163
(877) 387 - 9107
at 0.100 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,367.99
Fees in APR: $3,210
Thanks for the inquiry! 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Garden State Home Loans
Garden State Home Loans
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/7950_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
3.874
3.874
USD
Garden State Home Loans Logo
NMLS # 473163
State Lic # ML-473163
(877) 387 - 9107
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,410.54
Fees in APR: None
Thanks for the inquiry! 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Better.com
Better.com
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/9722_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.000
4.000
USD
Better.com Logo
NMLS # 330511
State Lic # ML-330511
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: None
Thank you for your quote. 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Garden State Home Loans
Garden State Home Loans
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/7950_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
9.490
9.125
USD
Garden State Home Loans Logo
NMLS # 473163
State Lic # ML-473163
(877) 387 - 9107
at 1.100 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $2,440.90
Fees in APR: $6,153
Thanks for the inquiry! 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Bank of America
Bank of America
300000
Refinance
4.087
4.000
USD
Bank of America
4.087%
5/24/2019
4.000%
at 0.590 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $1,351
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Savings Bank of Danbury
Savings Bank of Danbury
300000
Refinance
4.147
4.125
USD
Savings Bank of Danbury
4.147%
5/24/2019
4.125%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,453.95
Fees in APR: $790
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from First National Bank of Omaha
First National Bank of Omaha
300000
Refinance
4.783
4.750
USD
First National Bank of Omaha
4.783%
5/24/2019
4.750%
at 0.125 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,564.94
Fees in APR: $752
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from TD Bank, NA
TD Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.029
4.000
USD
TD Bank, NA
4.029%
5/21/2019
4.000%
at 0.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $1,043
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Citizens Bank, NA
Citizens Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.405
4.375
USD
Citizens Bank, NA
4.405%
5/17/2019
4.375%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,497.86
Fees in APR: $1,056
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from The Guilford Savings Bank
The Guilford Savings Bank
300000
Refinance
4.041
4.000
USD
The Guilford Savings Bank
4.041%
5/24/2019
4.000%
at 0.250 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $719
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from LincolnWay Community Bank
LincolnWay Community Bank
300000
Refinance
4.030
4.000
USD
LincolnWay Community Bank
4.030%
5/21/2019
4.000%
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $1,085
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Union Savings Bank
Union Savings Bank
300000
Refinance
4.274
4.250
USD
Union Savings Bank
4.274%
5/24/2019
4.250%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $852
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from UniBank for Savings
UniBank for Savings
300000
Refinance
4.536
4.500
USD
UniBank for Savings
4.536%
5/24/2019
4.500%
at 0.250 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $501
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Santander Bank, N.A.
Santander Bank, N.A.
300000
Refinance
4.306
4.250
USD
Santander Bank, N.A.
4.306%
5/23/2019
4.250%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $2,004
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from The Washington Trust Company
The Washington Trust Company
300000
Refinance
4.030
4.000
USD
The Washington Trust Company
4.030%
5/21/2019
4.000%
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $1,083
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from United Bank
United Bank
300000
Refinance
4.149
4.125
USD
United Bank
4.149%
5/21/2019
4.125%
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,453.95
Fees in APR: $865
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Liberty Bank
Liberty Bank
300000
Refinance
4.169
4.125
USD
Liberty Bank
4.169%
5/24/2019
4.125%
at 0.250 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,453.95
Fees in APR: $814
 
 

Mortage Data Provided by Bankrate.com Many lenders have different rates on their own Websites than those posted on Bankrate.com. In order to get the Bankrate.com rate, please identify yourself as a Bankrate.com customer. If you believe that you have received an inaccurate quote or are otherwise not satisfied with the services provided to you by the lender you choose, please click here.

The rates above were collected by Bankrate.com on the dates specified. Rates are subject to change without notice and may vary from branch to branch. Rate/APR and terms may vary based on the creditworthiness of the individual and the extent to which the loan differs from the one used for Bankrate.com quotes. For criteria used in surveys of rates above, click here. These quotes are from banks, thrifts, and brokers, some of whom have paid for a link to their own Web site, where you can find additional information.






10 year U.S. Treasury yields, which were forecast to be around 3.00 percent during this stage of the economic recovery, have fallen back under 2.00 percent this month. The decline in Treasury yields has forced 30 year mortgage rates down near the all-time lows of spring 2013.

10 year bond yields are trading at 1.80 percent and 30 year mortgage rates today are averaging 3.85 percent. About a year ago, 30 year mortgage rates were forecast to be above 5.00 percent by this time. The average 30 year rate is at 3.85 percent but on our rate tables we have lenders quoting 30 year refinance rates as low as 3.25 percent in some states.

There is also another factor at play forcing U.S. bond yields lower - a truly global market for sovereign bonds. 10 year U.S. bonds are only yielding 1.80 percent right now but that is considerably higher than current Japanese and German bond yields. 10 year Japanese bond yields are at 0.25 percent and 10 year German bonds are yielding 0.41 percent.

Investors are flocking to the higher yields U.S. bonds offered and a strong dollar is enhancing their returns. Investors buying bonds drive bond prices higher and as a result, drive yields lower. Lenders peg mortgage rates to bond yields so mortgage rates also move lower.

History has taught us that eventually the Fed will take the punch bowl away by increasing the fed funds rate. The likelihood of this happening sometime is year is almost certain but the question is when. We look for an increase in the fed funds rate sometime in the summer of 2015.

A higher fed funds rate will force bank deposit rates, bond yields and mortgage rates higher. Be sure to position your finances for the upcoming increase in rates in 2015.
 
Author: Brian McKay
January 16th, 2015