Mortgage Rates Forced Lower by QE4 and Global Bond Markets

Follow by Email
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
A fourth round of Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve? Yes, there is another round of easing already happening that is forcing mortgage rates lower but the Federal Reserve doesn't have anything to do with it. The easing comes in the form of lower oil prices.

You have heard about lower oil prices in the news and have seen sharply lower gas prices at the pump. The price per barrel of oil has fallen from over $100 a barrel last summer to $48 a barrel today. The plunge in oil, other commodity prices, and equity markets has forced investors to flee to the safety of U.S. Treasuries.
Loan Type
Purchase    Refinance
Location
State/City    Zip Code
Loan Amt Points FICO % Down
  
$
30 yr fixed refi in 23223, All points, Credit score: 740+     Sort by:
Lender
APR
Rate
Cost & Fees
Notes
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Apple Federal Credit Union
Apple Federal Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.345
4.250
USD
Apple Federal Credit Union
4.345%
3/20/2019
4.250%
at 1.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $352
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Bank of America
Bank of America
300000
Refinance
4.321
4.250
USD
Bank of America
4.321%
3/20/2019
4.250%
at 0.415 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $1,289
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from TD Bank, NA
TD Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.027
4.000
USD
TD Bank, NA
4.027%
3/22/2019
4.000%
at 0.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $982
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Citizens Bank, NA
Citizens Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.321
4.250
USD
Citizens Bank, NA
4.321%
3/22/2019
4.250%
at 0.375 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $1,408
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Virginia Credit Union
Virginia Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.432
4.375
USD
Virginia Credit Union
4.432%
3/19/2019
4.375%
at 0.125 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,497.86
Fees in APR: $1,650
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Fulton Bank, NA
Fulton Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.550
4.500
USD
Fulton Bank, NA
4.550%
3/19/2019
4.500%
at 0.250 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $1,007
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Santander Bank, N.A.
Santander Bank, N.A.
300000
Refinance
4.432
4.375
USD
Santander Bank, N.A.
4.432%
3/22/2019
4.375%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,497.86
Fees in APR: $2,004
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from LincolnWay Community Bank
LincolnWay Community Bank
300000
Refinance
4.280
4.250
USD
LincolnWay Community Bank
4.280%
3/19/2019
4.250%
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $1,085
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from State Department Federal Credit Union
State Department Federal Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.557
4.500
USD
State Department Federal Credit Union
4.557%
3/18/2019
4.500%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $2,000
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Northwest Federal Credit Union
Northwest Federal Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.326
4.250
USD
Northwest Federal Credit Union
4.326%
3/20/2019
4.250%
at 0.875 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $79
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Bank of Oak Ridge
Bank of Oak Ridge
300000
Refinance
4.225
4.180
USD
Bank of Oak Ridge
4.225%
3/21/2019
4.180%
at 0.250 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,463.55
Fees in APR: $853
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Raymond James Bank, NA
Raymond James Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.537
4.500
USD
Raymond James Bank, NA
4.537%
3/19/2019
4.500%
at 0.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $1,299
 
 

Mortage Data Provided by Bankrate.com Many lenders have different rates on their own Websites than those posted on Bankrate.com. In order to get the Bankrate.com rate, please identify yourself as a Bankrate.com customer. If you believe that you have received an inaccurate quote or are otherwise not satisfied with the services provided to you by the lender you choose, please click here.

The rates above were collected by Bankrate.com on the dates specified. Rates are subject to change without notice and may vary from branch to branch. Rate/APR and terms may vary based on the creditworthiness of the individual and the extent to which the loan differs from the one used for Bankrate.com quotes. For criteria used in surveys of rates above, click here. These quotes are from banks, thrifts, and brokers, some of whom have paid for a link to their own Web site, where you can find additional information.






10 year U.S. Treasury yields, which were forecast to be around 3.00 percent during this stage of the economic recovery, have fallen back under 2.00 percent this month. The decline in Treasury yields has forced 30 year mortgage rates down near the all-time lows of spring 2013.

10 year bond yields are trading at 1.80 percent and 30 year mortgage rates today are averaging 3.85 percent. About a year ago, 30 year mortgage rates were forecast to be above 5.00 percent by this time. The average 30 year rate is at 3.85 percent but on our rate tables we have lenders quoting 30 year refinance rates as low as 3.25 percent in some states.

There is also another factor at play forcing U.S. bond yields lower - a truly global market for sovereign bonds. 10 year U.S. bonds are only yielding 1.80 percent right now but that is considerably higher than current Japanese and German bond yields. 10 year Japanese bond yields are at 0.25 percent and 10 year German bonds are yielding 0.41 percent.

Investors are flocking to the higher yields U.S. bonds offered and a strong dollar is enhancing their returns. Investors buying bonds drive bond prices higher and as a result, drive yields lower. Lenders peg mortgage rates to bond yields so mortgage rates also move lower.

History has taught us that eventually the Fed will take the punch bowl away by increasing the fed funds rate. The likelihood of this happening sometime is year is almost certain but the question is when. We look for an increase in the fed funds rate sometime in the summer of 2015.

A higher fed funds rate will force bank deposit rates, bond yields and mortgage rates higher. Be sure to position your finances for the upcoming increase in rates in 2015.
 
Author: Brian McKay
January 16th, 2015