Forecasts for Higher Mortgage Rates Were Wrong

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Mortgage rates continue their downward spiral into 2015, defying predictions of higher rates. Mortgage rates moving lower in 2014 wasn't supposed to happen. Experts in the industry, including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), forecast mortgage rates to be much higher than current levels.

In March of 2014, the MBA's Mortgage Finance Forecast had 30 year mortgage rates hitting 5.00 percent by the fourth quarter of 2015 and 5.10 percent in the first quarter of 2015. Current 30 year mortgage rates are averaging 3.80 percent and the lowest 30 year rates quoted today are at 3.50 percent.
Loan Type
Purchase    Refinance
Location
State/City    Zip Code
Loan Amt Points FICO % Down
  
$
30 yr fixed refi in 06101, All points, Credit score: 740+     Sort by:
Lender
APR
Rate
Cost & Fees
Notes
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Garden State Home Loans
Garden State Home Loans
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/7950_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
3.720
3.624
USD
Garden State Home Loans Logo
NMLS # 473163
State Lic # ML-473163
(877) 387 - 9107
at 0.100 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,367.99
Fees in APR: $3,210
Thanks for the inquiry! 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Garden State Home Loans
Garden State Home Loans
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/7950_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
3.874
3.874
USD
Garden State Home Loans Logo
NMLS # 473163
State Lic # ML-473163
(877) 387 - 9107
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,410.54
Fees in APR: None
Thanks for the inquiry! 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Better.com
Better.com
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/9722_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
4.000
4.000
USD
Better.com Logo
NMLS # 330511
State Lic # ML-330511
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: None
Thank you for your quote. 
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Garden State Home Loans
Garden State Home Loans
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/7950_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
9.490
9.125
USD
Garden State Home Loans Logo
NMLS # 473163
State Lic # ML-473163
(877) 387 - 9107
at 1.100 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $2,440.90
Fees in APR: $6,153
Thanks for the inquiry! 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Bank of America
Bank of America
300000
Refinance
4.087
4.000
USD
Bank of America
4.087%
5/24/2019
4.000%
at 0.590 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $1,351
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Savings Bank of Danbury
Savings Bank of Danbury
300000
Refinance
4.147
4.125
USD
Savings Bank of Danbury
4.147%
5/24/2019
4.125%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,453.95
Fees in APR: $790
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from First National Bank of Omaha
First National Bank of Omaha
300000
Refinance
4.783
4.750
USD
First National Bank of Omaha
4.783%
5/24/2019
4.750%
at 0.125 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,564.94
Fees in APR: $752
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from TD Bank, NA
TD Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.029
4.000
USD
TD Bank, NA
4.029%
5/21/2019
4.000%
at 0.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $1,043
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Citizens Bank, NA
Citizens Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.405
4.375
USD
Citizens Bank, NA
4.405%
5/17/2019
4.375%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,497.86
Fees in APR: $1,056
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from The Guilford Savings Bank
The Guilford Savings Bank
300000
Refinance
4.041
4.000
USD
The Guilford Savings Bank
4.041%
5/24/2019
4.000%
at 0.250 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $719
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from LincolnWay Community Bank
LincolnWay Community Bank
300000
Refinance
4.030
4.000
USD
LincolnWay Community Bank
4.030%
5/21/2019
4.000%
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $1,085
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Union Savings Bank
Union Savings Bank
300000
Refinance
4.274
4.250
USD
Union Savings Bank
4.274%
5/24/2019
4.250%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $852
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from UniBank for Savings
UniBank for Savings
300000
Refinance
4.536
4.500
USD
UniBank for Savings
4.536%
5/24/2019
4.500%
at 0.250 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $501
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Santander Bank, N.A.
Santander Bank, N.A.
300000
Refinance
4.306
4.250
USD
Santander Bank, N.A.
4.306%
5/23/2019
4.250%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $2,004
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from The Washington Trust Company
The Washington Trust Company
300000
Refinance
4.030
4.000
USD
The Washington Trust Company
4.030%
5/21/2019
4.000%
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $1,083
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from United Bank
United Bank
300000
Refinance
4.149
4.125
USD
United Bank
4.149%
5/21/2019
4.125%
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,453.95
Fees in APR: $865
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Liberty Bank
Liberty Bank
300000
Refinance
4.169
4.125
USD
Liberty Bank
4.169%
5/24/2019
4.125%
at 0.250 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,453.95
Fees in APR: $814
 
 

Mortage Data Provided by Bankrate.com Many lenders have different rates on their own Websites than those posted on Bankrate.com. In order to get the Bankrate.com rate, please identify yourself as a Bankrate.com customer. If you believe that you have received an inaccurate quote or are otherwise not satisfied with the services provided to you by the lender you choose, please click here.

The rates above were collected by Bankrate.com on the dates specified. Rates are subject to change without notice and may vary from branch to branch. Rate/APR and terms may vary based on the creditworthiness of the individual and the extent to which the loan differs from the one used for Bankrate.com quotes. For criteria used in surveys of rates above, click here. These quotes are from banks, thrifts, and brokers, some of whom have paid for a link to their own Web site, where you can find additional information.






The most recent MBA forecast for rates is their December Mortgage Finance Report. Forecasts were for 30 year rates to be at 4.40 percent in the first quarter of 2015 and hit 5.00 percent in the third quarter. These forecasts will probably have to be revised down again since rates have moved lower since December.

Lenders peg mortgage rates to 10 year bond yields and 10 year yields are almost at record lows. 10 year yields closed on Friday at 1.81 percent, only 14 basis points from the record low of 1.66 percent set in May 2013. You can view the history of bond yields on the U.S. Department of the U.S. Treasury website: U.S. Treasury Yields.

Forecasts on mortgage rates have been wrong because forecasts on bond yields have been wrong. When the Federal Reserve started winding down their purchases of long term bonds and mortgage backed securities, interest rates were supposed to move higher.

The Federal Reserve stopped their purchases in October 2014 and since that time bond yields have fallen considerably. At the end of October, 10 year bond yields closed at 2.35 percent, 54 basis points higher than the current rate. That is almost a 23 percent drop.

Average 30 year mortgage rates have fallen from 3.98 percent to 3.80 percent, 18 basis points or almost a 5 percent drop. Average mortgage rates haven't dropped as much as bond yields because lenders have been slow to lower rates. This would suggest 30 year rates on average could fall even further, regardless of whether or not bond yields fall further.

Once the Federal Reserve increases rates, banks and other financial institutions will as well. Mortgage rates, other loan rates, CD rates and other deposit rates will all move higher.
 
Author: Brian McKay
January 22nd, 2015