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30 Year Mortgage Rates Down 0.12% on China Stock Market Fears

The recent run up in mortgage rates has reversed this week as a result of the Chinese stock market plunge. Average conforming 30 year mortgage rates are down 12 basis points to 4.04 percent. There is a chance that average 30 year rates will fall back below 4.00 percent this week.

You may be wondering why something happening in China is affecting mortgage rates in the United States. Mortgage rates are not directly affected by stock prices in China but are indirectly affected. Whenever there is uncertainly in the markets around the world, investors flock to the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The same thing happened this month when investors feared a Grexit. Earlier this month we posted an article on how the crisis in Greece was affecting mortgage rates: Greek Crisis Sends Mortgage Rates Lower this Week.

Weekly Mortgage Rate Report July 28 2015Any time U.S. Treasury price go up or down, the yield changes in the other direction. When investors buy Treasuries, prices move up and yields move lower. Lenders set mortgage rates to U.S. Treasury yields, so when yields decline, mortgage rates also decline.

All of the economic uncertainly in the world this year has benefited homeowners who financed or will finance the purchase of a home. At the beginning of 2015, average 30 year mortgage rates were forecast to hit 5.00 percent by the end of the year. The closer we get to the end of the year, the less likely we will see 5.00 percent rates.

A more likely scenario for 30 year mortgage rates is for rates to stay near current levels for the rest of the year. On the low end, rates could stay under 4.00 percent but on the high end rates could move up around 4.50 percent. Right now there are many lenders in our rate database quoting 30 year refinance rates below 4.00 percent.

Average 30 year rates are down considerably this week but average 15 year rates remain unchanged. The current average 15 year conforming rate is at 3.15 percent. 15 year rates will also fall this week, probably ending the week near 3.05 percent.

Average Mortgage Rates July 28 201530 year jumbo mortgage rates are averaging 4.31 percent, down from last week's average 30 year jumbo rate of 4.62 percent. A 31 basis point decline in average rates is one of the largest declines I have ever seen. Occasionally lenders are slow to lower rates, so the large decline might be a holdover from the past several days.

Mortgage rates today on 15 year jumbo loans are averaging 3.89 percent, down from the previous week's average 15 year jumbo rate of 4.01 percent. The best 15 year jumbo refinance rates in our database are much lower at 3.25 percent.
Author: Brian McKay
July 28th, 2015